Can I Retire at
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?
The Numbers Don't Lie.
You're investing $5,000+/month in index funds. Your expenses are $2,500. But can your portfolio actually survive 40+ years? Run the simulation.
Run Your Retirement SimulationHere's What Keeps You Up at Night
You're 29. You've got $375,000 in VOO. You're dumping $5,000-6,000 into the market every month. Your expenses are locked at $2,500.
The math seems simple: Hit $750,000, withdraw 4%, live on $30,000/year forever.
But here's the trap nobody talks about:
The 4% rule was designed for 30-year retirements. You're looking at 50+ years. One bad sequence of returns in your first decade, and your "safe" withdrawal rate becomes a portfolio death sentence.
This isn't about fear. It's about knowing your actual probability of success before you hand in your resignation.
The Ultimate 4% Rule & SWP Calculator
Simulate your portfolio's survival across thousands of market scenarios. See exactly how long your money lasts under different conditions.
Retirement Simulation
Interactive Calculator
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What the Simulation Actually Shows
Based on your inputs: $375k current, $6k/month contributions, 7% return, 3% inflation, $2.5k monthly expenses
25x annual expenses at 4% SWR
At $6k/month contribution rate
Portfolio survives 50 years
What This Chart Would Show You
Portfolio Value Over Time
The main trajectory line shows your portfolio growing from $375k to $750k+ during accumulation, then the withdrawal phase beginning at age 45. The shaded area represents the range of outcomes across 1,000+ Monte Carlo simulations.
Failure Scenarios (13%)
The bottom 13% of simulations where your portfolio hits zero before age 95. These typically involve poor returns in years 1-10 of retirement combined with higher-than-expected inflation.
Withdrawal Amount (Inflation-Adjusted)
Your $30,000/year withdrawal grows to ~$78,000 by age 95 due to 3% annual inflation. This is why the 4% rule is just a starting point—your actual spending power needs to keep pace with rising costs.
Sequence of Returns Risk Zone
The first 10 years of retirement are critical. A -20% market drop in year 1-3 combined with withdrawals can permanently damage your portfolio's ability to recover, even if markets rebound later.
Scenario Stress Tests
Same starting point. Different outcomes. See how small changes destroy or secure your retirement.
| SCENARIO | INFLATION | RETURN | SWR | SUCCESS | OUTCOME |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 3.0% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 87% | $1.2M at 95 |
| High Inflation | 4.5% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 62% | $180K at 95 |
| Lower Returns | 3.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 71% | $420K at 95 |
| 3.5% SWR | 3.0% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 96% | $1.8M at 95 |
| Perfect Storm | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 34% | $0 at 78 |
The Brutal Truth
A 1.5% increase in inflation + 1.5% decrease in returns drops your success rate from 87% to 34%. This isn't fear-mongering—it's what happened to retirees in the 1970s. Your "safe" 4% withdrawal becomes a 6%+ real withdrawal when inflation spikes.
What This Simulation Assumes
Historical Market Returns Are Representative
We use historical S&P 500 data (1926-2024) for Monte Carlo simulations. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The next 50 years could look nothing like the last 50.
Expenses Stay Constant (Inflation-Adjusted)
The simulation assumes your $2,500/month lifestyle doesn't change. Kids, healthcare spikes, lifestyle inflation, or major purchases aren't factored in. One kid adds ~$13,000/year in costs. Healthcare in your 60s+ can double.
No Social Security or Pension Income
This is pure portfolio survival. If you're eligible for Social Security at 62+ (or Spanish pension if retiring there), your success rate increases significantly. We model this as a safety buffer, not a guarantee.
Taxes Are Simplified
We assume a blended tax rate on withdrawals. Reality is messier: Roth conversions, capital gains harvesting, Spanish tax residency rules, and double taxation treaties all impact your actual cash flow.
You Won't Panic Sell
The simulation assumes you stick to the plan through market crashes. In 2008-2009, many retirees abandoned their strategy at the bottom, locking in permanent losses. Behavioral risk isn't modeled here.
Market Variability: The Wild Card
Even with an 87% success rate, there's a 13% chance your portfolio fails. That's roughly a 1-in-8 chance of running out of money. Is that risk acceptable to you? Only you can decide. Most planners aim for 95%+ success rates for true peace of mind.
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Geoarbitrage Calculator
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Sequence of Returns Risk Tool
Understand why the first 10 years of retirement make or break your portfolio.
Tax-Efficient Withdrawal Guide
Learn Roth conversion ladders, capital gains harvesting, and withdrawal sequencing.
Portfolio Allocation Guide
Is 100% VOO too risky for early retirement? Explore glide paths and bond tents.
Common Questions
High-intent queries from people asking the same thing you are.
It depends entirely on your annual expenses. At $750,000, a 4% withdrawal gives you $30,000/year. If your expenses are $30,000 or less (including taxes), you have roughly an 87% chance of your portfolio lasting 50 years based on historical data.
However, if your expenses are higher, or if you face poor market returns in your first decade, that probability drops significantly. Run the simulation with your exact numbers to see your personalized success rate.
The original 4% rule was designed for 30-year retirements. For early retirement (40-50 years), many planners recommend a more conservative 3.25-3.5% withdrawal rate.
At 3.5%, your success rate for a 50-year retirement jumps from ~87% to ~96%. The trade-off? You need a larger portfolio ($857,000 instead of $750,000 for $30k/year expenses) or you need to reduce expenses.
At 4% SWR: $750,000 (25x annual expenses)
At 3.5% SWR: $857,000 (28.6x annual expenses)
But remember: your $2,500 today won't be $2,500 in 20 years. At 3% inflation, that's $4,500/month by age 65. Your portfolio needs to grow enough to support inflation-adjusted withdrawals for 50 years.
This is called sequence-of-returns risk, and it's the biggest threat to early retirees. A 20-30% drop in your first 3 years of retirement, combined with withdrawals, can permanently damage your portfolio's ability to recover.
Mitigation strategies include:
- Keeping 2-3 years of expenses in cash/bonds (bond tent)
- Temporarily reducing withdrawals during downturns
- Having flexible side income or part-time work options
- Using a dynamic withdrawal strategy instead of fixed 4%
For early retirement planning, most conservative planners treat Social Security as a safety buffer, not a core assumption. If you're retiring at 45, you won't see Social Security for 17-20 years.
However, even a modest $1,500/month Social Security payment starting at 62 can dramatically improve your success rate. If you're eligible, run two scenarios: one without Social Security (your "must survive" number) and one with (your "comfortable" number).
Stop Guessing. Start Simulating.
Your retirement isn't a blog post to read. It's a math problem to solve. Run the simulation, see your probability of success, and make the decision with real data.
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